UK's £400 Billion AI Figure Came From a Google-Commissioned Report, Minister Confirms

A figure often used in the United Kingdom to describe the economic promise of artificial intelligence — that AI could add £400 billion to the economy — came from a report commissioned by Google, a government minister has confirmed.

What was confirmed

• AI minister Kanishka Narayan said in a parliamentary answer that the £400 billion figure came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by the consultancy Public First.
• The government's own central estimate is £120 billion by 2030.
• Narayan gave a range of £55 billion to £140 billion for the economic effect of AI adoption and data investment.
• According to reporting, Skills England was still publishing the £400 billion figure four months after ministers had received the lower estimate.

Why it matters

Headline figures shape public debate and policy decisions — from how much governments invest in AI infrastructure to how they plan for its effect on jobs. When an estimate comes from a company with a commercial interest in the technology, it is reasonable for the public to know where it came from and how it compares with independent or official analysis.

The government's central estimate still represents significant expected growth. The difference is in the scale — and in transparency about the source.

The wider lesson for readers

Big economic forecasts about new technology often vary widely depending on their assumptions. When you see a headline number, it's worth asking:

• Who produced the estimate, and who paid for it?
• Over what time period?
• What assumptions does it rely on?

Sources

• Wired: UK officials said AI would add £400 billion to the economy. That figure mainly came from Google